When the Blue Jays signed All-Star slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a 14-year, $500 million contract extension in April, the news was met with some mixed responses from the general baseball public.
Here was a homegrown star, a born Canadian who, with just one year left until free agency and after a lengthy and at times testy negotiation process, was pledging to spend the rest of his career in Toronto. For an MVP-caliber player entering his age-26 season, it was the kind of day that organizations dream about.
Except there was a way to view the decision as a desperation move, one made by a gambler who’s barely hanging onto their seat at the table deciding to push a dwindling chip stack all in. The Jays were coming off of a last-place finish that followed three playoff runs in four years, each ending with a wild-card round sweep. To some (including a certain writer), the organization’s contention window was closing, if not already shut. In gambling parlance, this was throwing good money after bad.
Four-plus months into the 2025 season, and it appears that Toronto’s big bet is paying off.
Entering play on Wednesday, the Blue Jays have the best record in the American League. Playoff odds that began at 40% on Opening Day, per FanGraphs, have soared to 98.7%. Barring a horrible collapse, Toronto will be alive and well in October, and has a good chance of earning a spot directly into the division series.
Beyond simply pledging half a billion dollars to Guerrero, the path to where the Blue Jays currently find themselves is paved with even more gambles on in-house talent returning to form and fueling Toronto’s surge.
For years, the Blue Jays have far too often (for their fans’ liking, at least) played the role of bridesmaid rather than bride. Highly publicized free agent chases of Shohei Ohtani (a private plane ride from California to Toronto carrying Canadian businessman Robert Herjavec of fame caused international confusion) and Juan Soto (agent Scott Boras said Toronto impressed the now-Met with a “great offer”) came up empty, as did bids at landing Corbin Burnes and Teoscar Hernández.
Toronto was looking high and low for reinforcements, but the big fish the organization chased weren’t biting.
And the ones that did end up joining the Blue Jays haven’t panned out as hoped. Anthony Santander, who inked a five-year, $92.5 million deal in January, managed a .179 average in 50 games before landing on the injured list. Closer Jeff Hoffman signed for $33 million, and has so far posted a 4.41 ERA with five blown saves. All-Star second baseman Andrés Giménez, acquired in a December trade from the Guardians, has battled injuries amid his worst offensive season (74 OPS+ in 62 games).
Instead of the cavalry coming to save the day, it’s been improvements from players already on the roster that have spurred the Blue Jays’ climb.
That list starts with shortstop Bo Bichette, a two-time All-Star who seemed to pair perfectly with Guerrero as the young faces of the franchise. From 2021 to ‘23, Bichette twice led the AL in hits and posted a 124 OPS+. An injury-marred ‘24 campaign saw his production fall off a cliff as he managed to play in just 81 games, and there was serious doubt as to whether he could rediscover his form.
Bichette has bounced back by cutting down his swing-and-miss, posting the lowest strikeout rate (14.9%) of his career without sacrificing hard contact. His barrel rate (8.6%) has nearly doubled from last year, and is back to near his career average. A free agent after this season, Bichette has greatly improved his financial prospects to the point that it’s possible Toronto could be priced out, but that’s a problem for another time. For now, the 27-year-old is playing a critical role in jumpstarting the Blue Jays’ title hopes.
Another standout has been George Springer, who once upon a time was the big-ticket free agent Toronto was actually able to sign. Springer joined the Blue Jays in 2021 on a six-year, $150 million contract that at the time was the largest in team history. After two productive years, Springer began to show his warts in ‘23, and the decline steepened to the tune of a .220/.303/.371 slash line in ‘24.
Against all odds, the 35-year-old has turned back the clock this season, putting up his best OPS+ (144) since 2019. He’s revitalized his production from the batter’s box by using his experience to his advantage, posting the lowest chase rate (20.6%) of his career. By laying off pitches outside the zone, he’s making pitchers come to him, and doing damage when he decides to let it rip. Springer ranks eighth among 300 qualified hitters in run value against pitches swung at in the heart of the strike zone, per StatCast.
The cast of resurgent Jays goes on. Alejandro Kirk is hitting .297 with a 110 OPS+ after posting .251 and 93 marks, respectively, over the previous two years. Daulton Varsho, who’s missed most of the year with shoulder and hamstring injuries, has played just 32 games but is healthy now and mashing, with 12 home runs and a 141 OPS+. Addison Barger, who batted .197 in his 69-game rookie season last year, has emerged to provide middle-of-the-order thump, slugging 18 home runs in 96 games with a 122 OPS+.
Toronto’s trade deadline moves reflected a team that’s moved on from the old boom-or-bust approach, with savvy acquisitions to bolster both the starting rotation and bullpen. The biggest of them was the trade for 2020 Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber, who’s nearly ready to return after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Seranthony Dominguez and Louis Varland are two flame-throwers brought on to help fortify the back end of the bullpen and provide manager John Schneider with more options come October, when fire-extinguishing relief pitchers become even more valuable.
In chasing the big names in recent years, Toronto has often left itself frustrated and empty handed. But by banking on a core that many had lost hope for, the Blue Jays might have just hit the jackpot after many had already counted them out.