It goes without saying that West Ham United need to mount a big response after last weekend's chastening 6-0 home defeat to London rivals Arsenal in the Premier League.
The malaise has been spreading for a while in east London as West Ham still seek their first victory of 2024 – having been knocked out of the FA Cup by Bristol City last month too – and this afternoon's clash against Nottingham Forest at City Ground could be definitive vis-a-vis David Moyes' future at the helm.
Of course, it's not all doom and gloom. West Ham still reside in eighth place in the Premier League and are behind Newcastle United only on goal difference, now beginning a favourable run of games that could lighten the chatter around Moyes' position.
But there is no doubt that this is an issue demanding redress. Injuries to the likes of Lucas Paqueta and Michail Antonio have damaged the fluency over this recent tough spell but there is enough quality to turn the tide and Forest, who languish in 16th place (two points above the drop zone), must be defeated to ensure that continental qualification does not slip away.
Nuno Espirito Santo's hosts desperately need some respite themselves and will not roll over for West Ham, making for a compelling encounter in the English top-flight.
West Ham team news vs Forest
As stated, Brazilian playmaker Paqueta remains sidelined following a calf problem, though he has returned to training in a significant boost for the Irons. Antonio, meanwhile, could make his first appearance since the start of November – against Forest, incidentally – after finally overcoming a knee injury.
Edson Alvarez and captain Kurt Zouma, both culpable for the dreadful performance against Arsenal last time out, should start despite coming off at half-time in that one.
It's a strong and near-complete side making the northward trip to Nottingham, and Moyes will need to engineer a positive display to ease the growing concerns that could boil over if Forest bag victory.
Nayef Aguerd must not start
Harking back to that Arsenal game again (sorry), it's hard to uproot any positives from the contest, with a lifeless defence allowing the likes of Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli to slalom into the danger area with ease, helpless against the string-pulling excellence of Martin Odegaard and devastated by the all-encompassing masterclass from one of their own: Declan Rice.
Few could hold their heads high after such a miserable afternoon but those in the rearguard failed woefully in maintaining a semblance of control in front of Alphonse Areola's goal.
Zouma will start this afternoon, and few would argue against it despite the Frenchman's slide in form of late, but Nayef Aguerd has proved himself unworthy since returning from the African Cup of Nations with Morocco and must be relegated to the bench against the Tricky Trees.
The 27-year-old has been largely impressive since signing from French side Rennes for £30m in June 2022 and finished third in West Ham's Player of the Season awards last term, behind Rice and Said Benrahma.
This season, he has started 18 times in the Premier League but got himself sent off early on against Chelsea. Across the season he has completed only 79% of his passes while making two errors and conceding a penalty, as per Sofascore.
The Athletic's Roshane Thomas has also noted earlier in the campaign that "defensive errors are holding him back", but against Arsenal, his display wasn't laden was errors, but rather, weighed down by a staticness that allowed the antagonists to wreak havoc in second gear.
Aguerd didn't actually lose a ground duel last weekend, but this is because the £50k-per-week centre-half didn't actually make a single ground duel attempt, also completing only 65% of his passes and losing possession on a whopping 17 occasions.
This is unforgivable, with the Evening Standard's Dom Smith branding him with a 3/10 match score for his insipid efforts, writing: 'Got nowhere near Saka for Arsenal’s fifth goal, allowing the England forward to roam free and slam home. Torrid afternoon for Aguerd.'
Elanga benched in Nottingham Forest's predicted lineup vs West Ham
Nottingham Forest will look to pick up their first Premier League win of 2024.
ByTom LeverFeb 17, 2024
The 6 foot 2 ace attempted just one ground duel against Fulham during December's 5-0 drubbing too and will need to sit today's fixture out if he is to absorb the importance of ramping up the gas for his side in the future.
And given that Konstantinos Mavropanos is waiting in the wings, it does seem to be the perfect solution for Moyes, making an alteration that might just secure victory and save his skin.
Konstantinos Mavropanos could save Moyes' skin
Factory-built for the modern game, Mavropanos is a ball-playing defender with an aggressiveness and tenacity that makes him a good option for Moyes, having been described as a "gladiator" by former boss Pellegrino Matarazzo in the past.
As per FBref, the Greece international ranks among the top 2% of centre-backs across Europe's top five leagues over the past year for shots taken, the top 12% for successful take-ons, the top 25 for interceptions and the top 14% for aerial battles won per 90.
The one-time Arsenal prospect was signed from German side Stuttgart in a £19m deal last summer and has since started seven matches in the Premier League, scoring once.
Having won 65% of his duels in the division so far, the 6 foot 5 Mavropanos would be an excellent partner for Zouma in today's game, averaging 3.5 ball recoveries and 4.2 clearances per match and actually keeping more clean sheets than Aguerd (3 versus 2) despite playing eight fewer fixtures.
Strengths
Weaknesses
Interceptions
Concentration
Tackling
Discipline
Aerial duels
Dribbling
Source: WhoScored
The magnitude of the forthcoming affair cannot be understated; if Nottingham Forest clinch victory Moyes' reign would dangle by a tenuous thread indeed.
Aguerd has proved himself unreliable of late and given that Mavropanos has done a good job since coming in, he must be provided with a starting berth to ensure that his side prevail.